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Gandalf Grey · Guest

Surging for Shiites

By Stephen Pizzo
Created Mar 7 2007 - 9:50am

Never try to outsmart an Arab rug merchant. You'll come out on the losing
end every time. If George W. had curled up at the ranch with some T.E.
Lawrence [1] he'd understand that. But he didn't, which explains why he
thinks his "surge" in Iraq is actually working -- so much so he wants to
surge again:

Associated Press, 3/6/07 - Washington: The White House is ready to ask
Congress for more money for President Bush's plan - already hotly debated -
to send 21,500 new combat troops into Iraq...The move would pay for support
personnel and otherwise update last month's request for the Iraq war. It is
expected to draw criticism from Democrats who say the Pentagon
underestimated the costs of Bush's plan for improving security in Baghdad
and Anbar province.

But like almost everything this administration either believes or claims to
believe, you just have to dig a centimeter below the surface to discover
something completely different. And so it is with the surge.

What They Say: Less than a month into the surge the level of violence in and
around Baghdad has fallen sharply. US and Iraqi government troops have moved
peacefully into Sadr City [2], the stronghold of the powerful Shia Mahdi
Army [3].

All that is true. Violence has dropped and the Mahdi Army has become all but
invisible.

The question is not what's happening, but why it's happening. Why has the
violence dropped?

The administration believes it's because their latest "clear and hold,"
surge strategy has finally turned the trick for them. High fives all around.

Wrong. Quite the opposite in fact. Here's what's really happening.

When Bush first announced his surge plan Shiite leaders, (particularly that
little two-legged tumor, Muqtada al-Sadr [4],) took stock of the situation
and decided that, rather than being a threat to them, Bush's surge was a
potential solution - to the "Sunni problem."

The last time Americans tried to pacify Baghdad, including Sadr City, both
Shia and Sunni engaged US troops and took a beating. They weren't defeated,
but they lost lots of fighters, expended valuable resources and their own
neighborhoods were left shattered.

This time, Shiites decided why not just lay low, just sit out the surge.
It;s a luxury Shiites knew their Sunni opponents could not afford. The
Sunnis, Iraq's minority sect, is fighting for nothing less than its very
survival. And the day the Sunnis stop fighting is the day they lose, in a
region where "losing" doesn't mean "wait til next season." Because there
will be no next season for the losers.

And so it has come to pass. The car and suicide-bombs going off in Baghdad
today are almost entirely Sunni inspired attacks. Those attacks will spark
precisely the kind of counter-attacks by US/Iraqi troops in Sunni
strongholds Shiites are counting on.

The second part of Bush's surge strategy focuses on Iraq's troubled Anbar
province [5] -- more good news for Iraq's Shiites and their supporters in
Tehran. Anbar is the center of gravity of the Sunni insurgency. And yes,
there are also a few thousand foreign al Qaida fighters headquartered in
Anbar as well - a very uneasy marriage of convenience with indigenous
Sunnis.

Getting the picture? Bush's surge is going to end up weakening the Sunni
insurgency and strengthening Shiite dominance. Why on earth would Shiite
fighters do anything but sit back and enjoy the show? Which is precisely
what they are doing.

While George W. Bush makes Iraq safe for Iranian-backed Shiites, leaders
like perennial troublemaker al Sadr are busy too. They are in Iran spending
their surge down-time to do some post-graduate training at the University of
Lunatic Islamic Governance in Tehran.

So the next time you hear an administration official touting the success of
the surge, understand that what they are really bragging about is that they
are succeeding in doing Maliki and al Sadr's dirty work for them. That's
right, American soldiers are dying and being maimed now to make Iraq safe
for the likes of Muqtada al-Sadr and to prepare Iraq for Iran's flavor of
Islamic oppressive governance.

But wait, there's more. If Bush's surge succeeds in knocking Iraq's Sunnis
out of commission it would hand Iran one more piece to it's dream of
creating a "Shia Crescent [6]" from the Gulf to the Mediterranean -- a Shia
Crescent with it's capital in Tehran.

Personally I could give a fig if that happens or not. While Sunni-run
governments tend to be more secular than Shia-run governments, neither are
exactly examples of progressive thought or behavior. Quite the opposite.
What I worry is that Sunni nations, like Jordan, Egypt, Lebanon and Syria,
will not just turn the keys of government over Iran's mullahs. They'll
fight. Because, while Sunnis and Shiites share a hated for America, they
hate each other even more.

Therefor if Bush's surge "succeeds," it may simply spark a wider war, one
that will set fire to the entire Middle East. That in turn will draw western
nations in order to protect their most important sources of oil. Call it
World War III or the Third Gulf War. Whatever it's called it'll be a
whooper.

Just when you think George & Co. couldn't possibly screw things up worse
than they already have, they do.

Heck of a job, Georgie.
_______
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"A little patience and we shall see the reign of witches pass over, their
spells dissolve, and the people recovering their true sight, restore their
government to its true principles. It is true that in the meantime we are
suffering deeply in spirit,
and incurring the horrors of a war and long oppressions of enormous public
debt. But if the game runs sometimes against us at home we must have
patience till luck turns, and then we shall have an opportunity of winning
back the principles we have lost, for this is a game where principles are at
stake."
-Thomas Jefferson